It has been nearly eight years since antimicrobial resistance (AMR) gained political attention at the highest levels. At the United Nations (UN) High-Level Meeting (HLM) on AMR in 2016, countries vowed to take a coordinated approach to address the root causes of AMR. Now, close to a decade later, progress has been uneven at best. While many countries have tried to tackle the issue by developing their own national action plans, fewer than a fifth of these plans are funded or implemented. And while annual global funding for antibiotic research and development (R&D) increased by 25 percent since 2017, access remains a challenge, as many new antibiotics never get registered and remain unaffordable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
On September 26, the UN is hosting a second HLM, aimed at accelerating multisectoral global, regional, and national action to address AMR. Will this be the moment where key global decision-makers generate lasting political momentum to make meaningful progress addressing this silent pandemic?
Renewed sense of urgency to address AMR and invest in R&D
The upcoming meeting will occur amid a sense of renewed urgency around addressing AMR. A recent Lancet report highlights that drug-resistant pathogens could cause more than 39 million deaths over the next 25 years, forecasting that AMR deaths will increase steadily in the coming decades if remediation measures are not in place.
A study by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance Project predicts that AMR mortality will increase by 70 percent by 2050 and notes that the most impactful way to prevent this outcome is through improving access to effective antibiotics, particularly in LMICs, where the burden of disease continues to be the greatest.
The study also suggests that the traditional model of drug development may not be sustainable for antibiotics, as most new products never reach key populations in LMICs because they are not able to overcome regulatory challenges and remain too expensive. Unless access and affordability are assured, the global mortality burden from resistant bacterial infections will continue unabated. Ensuring there are political commitments to strengthen the AMR R&D ecosystem will be crucial in realizing progress.
2024: The year of AMR?
The good news is that, in many ways, 2024 has already been the year of AMR. In May, the World Health Organization (WHO) delegates approved a resolution to accelerate national and global responses on AMR, with many of them highlighting it as a crucial building block for the HLM this fall.
The resolution welcomes WHO’s strategic and operational priorities to address drug-resistant bacterial infections in the human health sector, including strengthening R&D to support the creation of new tools to combat AMR and replenish the shockingly waning pipeline.
AMR has also continued to feature in G7 and G20 discussions, and member states are largely expected to include provisions focused on combating the silent pandemic in political outcome documents later this fall, including recognizing the need for new investments in research and greater support to initiatives like the Global AMR R&D Hub.
Political declaration: Commitments on a path forward
So, what constitutes success for the HLM on AMR? Much of it comes down to the commitments and pledges made in the political declaration that will be adopted by delegates. The good news is that the final draft includes some strong targets, including one to reduce global deaths from bacterial AMR by ten percent by 2030. Countries are also pledging to develop their national action plans by 2030, of which 60 percent would need to be adequately funded by the deadline (compared to the roughly 20 percent which are to date).
Perhaps most notable though is the request for the Quadripartite—which is comprised of WHO, the World Organization for Animal Health, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, and the UN Environment Programme—to establish an Independent Panel on Evidence for Action. The panel would serve a key function by supporting member states’ decision-making with regular guidance on the trends of science, data, and evidence across AMR-related sectors.
R&D is also a central pillar in the declaration, with member states recognizing the need for increased public-health-driven R&D and the role of public-private partnerships like the Global Antibiotic Research & Development Partnership and the Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria Biopharmaceutical Accelerator. The text encourages the use of push and pull incentives to spur R&D while ensuring mechanisms are in place for equitable access. Countries are called upon to develop and incentivize the adoption of manufacturing standards, promote the transfer of technology and know-how, encourage research, and undertake measures to address the growing shortage of researchers and medical specialists.
It is worth celebrating the inclusion of several numeric targets, as many past political outcome documents coming out of UN health-focused high-level meetings did not feature such specific and explicit provisions and pledges. However, while the political declaration offers a good framework for making bigger shifts in the fight against the silent pandemic and ensuring a more explicit focus on equitable access to health technologies to fight AMR, additional funding and research targets would have led to an even stronger outcome, as targets lead to better transparency and accountability.
What’s next?
Member states are largely expected to adopt the political declaration on Thursday without much controversy. The question is: what’s next? There will certainly be opportunities to further advance the work on AMR in other forums, such as the G7 and G20, as well as at the AMR ministerial in Saudi Arabia in November. The AMR political declaration includes a commitment by countries to raise $100 million to aid implementation of national action plans, and follow-through on the principles and targets will be key in the months (and years) ahead, especially with the next AMR meeting not scheduled until 2029. The 79th UN General Assembly will be a pivotal moment to garner the high-level political commitment needed to ensure sustained focus on the ongoing challenges around AMR and to shift from dialogue to action to combat the silent pandemic.